Econometrics of Short and Unreliable Time Series by Andrei I. Kazmin (auth.), Dr. Thomas Url, Univ.-Doz. Dr.

By Andrei I. Kazmin (auth.), Dr. Thomas Url, Univ.-Doz. Dr. Andreas Wörgötter (eds.)

The disappearance of critical deliberate economies left politicians, researchers, specialists, and teachers with an curiosity in economies in transition in vagueness in regards to the genuine nation of the economic climate and its brief and medium time period customers. This quantity presents the reader with details on tips on how to care for the statistical shortcomings of economies in transition. such a lot financial variables released for those nations are inclined to surround a brief time period or they own a low size caliber. in addition, lots of the sequence are topic to structural breaks, as a result of swap within the styles of financial reactions through the years. The contributions during this quantity convey quite a few how one can remedy or a minimum of to minimize the earlier than pointed out problems.

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Missing blocs There are some 'white fields' in the models of CPE. Unemployment can be considered as such a problem, brought about by market economy. The full employment system maintained in the CPE, motivated mainly by political aims, was reflected in the models treating labor as exogenous and not dealing 24 CHAPTER 2: Macroeconomic Forecasting for Hungary with unemployment rates, although the notion of the 'hidden unemployment' was well known for long. The decline in the output and in the rouble exports coupled with the bankruptcy of several state-owned large enterprises have resulted an unemployment rate of about 3 percent in 1990, which is not very high in international comparison, but it is expected to increase as a consequence of the competition inducing factor productivity changes in the whole industry.

For the years 1992-93 slight reduction of inflation and significant improvement in the business survey variables have been supposed. Evidently the forecasts could reflect only the consequences of changes in factors the exogenous variables cover, and could not consider any parameter changes. 4. 9 ... A: preliminary aetual data; M: model forecasts. New enterprises. Exports and imports to 'Other countries' here correspond to the former non-rouble trade, and Central and Eastern Europe represents the former rouble trade.

_tl_ 110 102 J. 100 . . . . • 105 . . . . . . . + 98 ........ 96 ........... 95 94 .................. 90 . . . . . . . . . . 92 . . . A4: Private Consumption Exports and Imports (previous year (previous year = 100, at 1981 prices) percent = 100, at 1981 prices) percent 115 ~-----------------------------. - Exports Ictuals . Imports actuals 110 95 . . . . . . . 90 . 85 . ta.. , K. Hulyak, Zs. Nyary, and M. " Akademiai Konyvkiad6. Halabuk, L. and H. T. " International Economic Review, 66: 871-879.

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