By Jamie Rogers (auth.)
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Additional resources for Strategy, Value and Risk: A Guide to Advanced Financial Management
Example text
Real options and decision analysis both have the common goal of modeling the decisions and uncertainties associated with investments. Where there is a distinction between the real options and decision analysis method is in the definition of valuing risky cash flows. Valuation in decision analysis is derived from the values and preferences of an individual or organization, whereas valuation in real options is derived from prices in traded markets. As value in real options is based on markets, risk-neutral probabilities and risk free discount rates, the utility functions and risk adjustments to discount rates as used in decision analysis are unnecessary.
The 1955 and 1975 lists show a relatively small decline in manufacturing, sales and market value and the rise of financial services, information technology, and pharmaceuticals and health care. Both lists are fundamentally the same, with manufacturing firms dominating. By 2000, however, manufacturing had declined significantly, with financial services, information technology, and telecoms and media dramatically increasing as measured by revenues. There were a number of fundamental changes in the US economy over the last quarter of the 20th century.
Private risk can therefore be identified through the data rather than through subjective breakdowns of market and private risks. Other techniques that can be used when spanning does not hold are decision analysis and dynamic programming. Decision analysis is a structured quantitative approach for the evaluation of decisions that have complex alternatives, competing objectives and major sources of uncertainty. The origins of decision analysis began at Harvard Business School in the early 1960s as a continuation of the quantitative 36 Strategy, Value and Risk advances in operations research and management science.