Greater than part a century after the arrival of the nuclear age, is the realm drawing close a tipping element that may unharness a deadly disease of nuclear proliferation? at the present time a few of the development blocks of a nuclear arsenal—scientific and engineering services, precision computer instruments, software program, layout information—are extra available than ever prior to. The nuclear pretensions of so-called rogue states and terrorist agencies are a lot mentioned.
But how company is the get to the bottom of of these nations that traditionally have selected to forswear nuclear guns? a mix of alterations within the foreign atmosphere may possibly trigger a domino impact, with international locations scrambling to boost nuclear guns in order to not be left behind—or to advance nuclear "hedge" capacities that might let them construct nuclear arsenals rather quick, if useful.
The Nuclear Tipping aspect examines the standards, either household and transnational, that form nuclear coverage. The authors, exclusive students and international coverage practitioners with huge govt adventure, boost a framework for knowing why yes international locations may perhaps initially have made up our minds to give up nuclear weapons—and pinpoint a few more moderen country-specific components that can provide them reason to re-examine.
Case reports of 8 long term stalwarts of the nonproliferation regime—Egypt, Germany, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Syria, Turkey, and Taiwan—flesh out this framework and convey how even those international locations should be driven over the sting of a nuclear tipping aspect. The authors provide prescriptions that may either hinder such nations from reconsidering their nuclear alternative and circumvent proliferation by way of others.
The stakes are huge, immense and luck is much from guaranteed. to maintain the tipping element past achieve, the authors argue, the foreign group should act with team spirit, mind's eye, and energy, and Washington's management should be crucial.
Contributors contain Leon Feurth, George Washington college; Ellen Laipson, Stimson middle; Thomas W. Lippman, center East Institute; Jenifer Mackby, middle for Strategic and overseas experiences; Derek J. Mitchell, middle for Strategic and foreign experiences; Jonathan D. Pollack, U.S. Naval warfare university; Walter B. Slocombe, Caplin and Drysdale; and Tsuyoshi Sunohara, middle for Strategic and foreign experiences.
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Extra resources for The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices
Example text
S. 2 Five Factors to Consider for Future Nuclear Proliferation What specific conditions would inspire a country to retreat from a wellestablished, non-nuclear national identity in favor of an arsenal that 02 1330-4 chap2 20 5/20/04 1:08 PM Page 20 KURT M. CAMPBELL includes atomic devices and the means for their delivery? The most likely case would probably involve several circumstances interacting and reinforcing each other in complex ways. S. foreign and security policy, —a breakdown of the global nuclear nonproliferation regime, —the erosion of regional or global security, —domestic imperatives, and —increasing availability of technology.
What was the nature of the decisionmaking process? Was the question of whether to acquire nuclear weapons formally and explicitly 03 1330-4 chap3 5/20/04 1:08 PM Page 37 WILL THE ABSTAINERS RECONSIDER? 37 addressed? Was a conscious national decision made or was the matter essentially deferred? Was adherence to the NPT the codification of a real decision to forswear nuclear weapons or an expedient and temporizing response to international pressures? —Was the decisionmaking process public or did deliberations take place only privately within the government?
Policymakers realize that the regional impact of particular states acquiring nuclear weapons could be great, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, where nuclear and non-nuclear states barely maintain an uneasy coexistence. Further proliferation by rogues in these regions could have far-reaching consequences in terms of nuclear proliferation and heightened regional rivalries. For example, the development of a nuclear capability by North Korea might quickly lead to nuclear proliferation in Japan and South Korea, heighten tensions with an already nuclear-armed China, and destroy the tenuous balance of power in the region.