By Kenneth A. Froot, Olivier Jean Blanchard, Jeffrey D. Sachs
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Additional resources for The Transition in Eastern Europe: Country Studies
These loopholes can be closed, however, by adopting strict definitions of what constitutes direct government investment, limiting the percentage of GDP allowed (say, no more than an extra 3-5 percent), or not allowing for separation of budgets but raising the allowable total deficit by 1 percent, for example, for each 2 percent of planned additional infrastructure, with a total ceiling of no more than 5-6 percent. , by the World Bank) does, of course, ease matters. There are no universal rules governing these considerations; they must of necessity be geared to each economy’s specific risks or past record.
There are several reasons for the large output fall. First of all, the anticipation of a sharp price increase stimulates hoarding, which is immediately followed by a substantial reduction in demand. Next, when prices rise by more than was planned while money, credit, and wages are kept within their specified nominal ceilings, the obvious result is a considerably larger than expected reduction in real money and credit as well as in real wages. This happened in Poland in 1990 and was repeated in the other countries that experienced shocks.
Given excess capacity in complementary factors of production, the marginal GDP product of foreign exchange equals the reciprocal of the ratio of raw materials to GDP. 37 Stabilization and Reform in Eastern Europe: A Preliminary Evaluation output in the near future. A substitute for the CMEA in the form of a payments union or trade arrangement would certainly help. Given the financial and political problems of the former Soviet Union, it is not clear how well such an arrangement could have worked during 1991, but even maintaining some of the distorted bilateral arrangements during the transition could probably have softened the blow.