By J. Hendrickson
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Additional info for Financial Crisis: The United States in the Early Twenty-First Century
Thus, for Minsky, as the economy is expanding, investment, profit, debt, and confidence are rising while liquidity is falling. However, also during expansion, the susceptibility of the borrower to default is rising. If borrowers are generally taking on greater financial commitments, this means that hedge, speculative, and Ponzi borrowers are all accumulating more debt. In other words, if debt commitments cannot be financed out of profits (as in the case of hedge borrowers) but, rather, require additional debt, then speculative and Ponzi borrowing is on the rise.
At the same time, however, the financial variables are heavily influenced by uncertain expectations about the future. 7 However, the uncertainty is not random; rather, it is a part of the natural fluctuations in the business cycle. More specifically, when an economy is in the expansion phase of a cycle, expectations are high and acceptable risk levels rise with expectations. e. disequilibrating, because of changes in risky behavior that emerges during an expansion to engender greater risk. The point is that the Keynesian concepts of the business cycle – finance, disequilibrating tendencies, and uncertainty – all influence investment in the Minsky theory.
One criterion for making the decision is to look at Wolfson and understand his criteria. He largely focused his book on what he terms “cyclical theories,” which are theories of financial crises that take place within the context of the business cycle, typically near the peak. From the cyclical theories, he considers several historical scholars including Thorstein Veblen, Wesley Clair Mitchell, and Karl Marx and several contemporary theorists, including Hyman P. Minsky, Albert M. Wojnilower, and Allen Sinai.