The History of Econometric Ideas (Historical Perspectives on by Professor Mary S. Morgan

By Professor Mary S. Morgan

The heritage of Econometric principles covers the interval from the overdue 19th century to the center of the 20th century, illustrating how economists first discovered to harness statistical the way to degree and attempt the "laws" of economics. even though scholarly, Dr. Morgan's e-book is particularly obtainable; it doesn't require a excessive point of previous statistical wisdom, and should be of curiosity to working towards statisticians and economists.

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He particularly approved of Moore's methods which allowed the data, rather than the pre-conceived notions of the investigator to mould the conclusion. (Persons (1915), p. 645) Yule's comments were not so enthusiastic, but he was not unfriendly. He found the correlation coefficients convincing and believed that Moore had presented a strong case that weather cycles were at least a very important contributory cause of economic cycles. (Yule (1915), p. 303) But Yule criticised Moore for not using harmonic analysis directly on the economic data to reveal and analyse the economic cycles.

19 Last, but by no means least, of the technical issues was that periodogram analysis could be of only very limited use to econometricians. Economists, even the most empirically minded, were primarily interested in the relationships between variables rather than the behaviour ofone variable, while the harmonic analysis available at the time was applicable to one variable at a time and could not be used to investigate relationships between variables. This was certainly one of the drawbacks which struck Frisch when he started a theoretical study of time-series methods in the mid-1920s.

The process was reversed when the rain cycle caused yields to decline. This model was finally confirmed for Moore when he found that the correlation of crop yields and general prices was highest with a lag of four years. The chart, Figure 2, shows the degree of concurrence between the two series in this final relationship (note that trends and the lag have both been eliminated). He used this correlation to justify his inference that the rhythmical features of crop yields are duplicated in prices; thus completing the cycle explanation, from weather through to general prices.

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